Decisions Are Hard—Risk Management Can Help
By Col John B. Kelley, HQ AMC Director of Safety
I heard an apocryphal story years ago about a commander receiving an intelligence briefing before making a decision on an imminent operation. The Intel Officer comprehensively discussed both possible courses of action (COAs), describing the advantages, disadvantages, and risks from the adversary’s point of view. After every question from the commander, the Intel Officer would describe one possibility, then state “on the other hand” and state the countering possibility. After ten minutes of questioning with similar answers involving “on the one hand” and then “on the other hand,” the commander’s deputy asked if anything else was needed before making a decision. The exasperated commander replied, “I need a straight answer…I need a one-handed Intel Officer!”
This anecdote is my kind of military story—it makes me laugh while teaching me something about leadership and decision-making. It is a fair example of the challenges of making decisions with incomplete or uncertain information, which involves risk. And let’s be honest: any decision in a worthwhile endeavor involves uncertainty and risk. Although the commander of the story might not have appreciated it at the time, the Intel Officer was doing a good job employing Risk Management (RM) principles and laying the foundation for the commander to make a risk-informed decision. The risk management process does not promise to make decisions easier, but it will reduce the probability of being surprised by the outcome.
By the time this article is published, you will no doubt have participated in Risk Management training as part of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force’s Integrating Risk and Readiness Campaign. The Chief hopes to give all Airmen the tools needed to identify, assess, and mitigate risk to make sound decisions for success on- and off-duty. After all the discussions during training about the five-step process of Risk Mitigation and deliberate versus real-time risk decisions, at the core of Risk Management are four principles (per DAFI 90-802, Risk Management):
- Accept No Unnecessary Risk. This rule does not mean the lowest-risk COA is always best. Rather, choose the one where the total benefit to the mission and personnel exceeds the total cost and risk.
- Make Decisions at the Appropriate Level. Each individual is responsible for their personal welfare decisions, and commanders own their risk-acceptance decisions for the mission.
- Integrate RM Into Operations, Activities, and Planning at All Levels. Give yourself time to think about the risks of taking action (or not taking action) and implementing mitigations.
- Apply the Process Cyclically and Continuously. To paraphrase Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke, “No plan survives first contact with the enemy,”—adjust your risk calculation as the situation changes in real-time.
Listening to all this instruction, you may think, “Leave it to my Air Force to turn common sense into a complex and involved process.” Normally, I would agree with you. However, your granddad or the internet will quickly remind us that “Common sense isn’t that common.” It can be hard to access common sense when you are tired, hungry, stressed, or all the above. This collection of principles is a good mantra and reference for coping with the countless decisions we make every day.
As we approach winter, with all the challenges of weather and travel, try to remember these principles of Risk Management. Whether you are executing missions someplace warm and dusty, driving over the frozen river and through the snowy woods to grandmother’s house, or planning the squadron’s “Festivus” party, a little Risk Management can go a long way toward keeping events on track and less risky.
From all of us on your AMC Safety staff, have a wonderful holiday season, and we will see you back here in the New Year for more Mobility Forum fun—Aim High!