Forecast to Flight—Weather Operations at the 618th Air Operations Center
By Mrs. Lauren Fosnot, Staff Writer
No matter where a mission takes off or lands, weather is a constant player in global mobility operations.
Weather is not just a factor—it is a force. From flight routes to timing, every detail can shift with a change in the forecast. Understanding meteorological conditions helps keep aircrews protected and missions moving forward worldwide.
At the heart of Air Mobility Command’s (AMC) weather operations is the 618th Air Operations Center (618 AOC) at Scott Air Force Base, IL—the execution arm of AMC’s global-reach mission. The 618 AOC plans, schedules, and directs a fleet of nearly 1,100 mobility aircraft, which supports global combat delivery, strategic airlift, air refueling, and aeromedical evacuation operations. By operating twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, and 365 days a year, 618 AOC ensures unrivaled rapid global mobility—and none of it would be possible without real-time weather intelligence.
Maj Ralph Nehring serves as the Deputy Director for 618 AOC’s Global Weather Directorate, a forty-member team spanning two divisions: Operations and Plans. Together, they monitor global weather threats and deliver accurate, timely briefings to mission planners and leadership.
Nehring did not set out to work in weather when he first enlisted in the Air Force, but once he was introduced to the discipline of meteorology, he decided to stick with it. What began as an unexpected assignment grew into a lasting profession. Nearly twenty-four years later, Nehring says he cannot imagine doing anything else.
Throughout his career, Nehring has helped integrate weather intelligence into mission planning and execution. His leadership ensures that AMC missions worldwide are informed by the most accurate weather data, enhancing mission safety, readiness, and effectiveness.
The Operations Division of the Global Weather Directorate provides weather briefings for active missions and delivers real-time updates on significant threats worldwide. The Plans Division focuses on upcoming missions by identifying global weather threats and providing briefings to AMC and 618 AOC command teams throughout the week.
“A typical day for our collective team involves tracking weather threats across various geographical areas of responsibility,” Nehring explained. “Anything from dense fog to volcanic ash plumes [and] crosswinds to tropical cyclones. We then convey these threats to mission planners to drive mitigative actions, such as adjusting flight paths or modifying departure and arrival times.”
To gather the data needed to protect and inform these missions, the team leverages a wide range of sources—from specialized Air Force weather tools to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Aviation Weather Center, National Hurricane Center, and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.
“While our job is to predict, the job itself can be unpredictable,” Nehring said. He cited a recent example involving a high-profile mission to an austere airfield in Asia. The host nation selected the arrival time, and Nehring’s team gathered and analyzed forecast data seventy-two hours in advance. Their analysis flagged a significant smog event projected to impact the area at the planned arrival window. They quickly alerted mission planners and proposed a new arrival time, triggering a cascade of logistical changes that required high-level approval due to the cargo’s sensitive nature.
“Had the mission gone as originally scheduled and been diverted or delayed enroute due to the weather, the aircrew and the [Air Operations Center] would’ve been faced with a very difficult situation involving real-time diplomatic and logistical hurdles,” Nehring said. “It could have been a mess—I’m really glad we caught that in time.”
With the 618 AOC directing an average of one hundred to one hundred-fifty missions per day—many of them deemed high-priority—balancing safety, urgency, and mission requirements is a constant challenge. To maximize time and efforts, the weather team refined its approach.
“We have a pretty good system in place,” Nehring said. “We analyze the weather threats first, then cross-reference those threats with which missions will be impacted. That data gets passed to the flight managers on the operations floor to take the appropriate mitigative actions. Based on mission priority or weather severity, we may escalate the information to senior leaders to drive significant mission changes—or at the very least, provide critical situational awareness.”
Another challenge is striking the right balance between mission urgency and caution. “There’s a fine line between preserving safety by identifying bad weather and delaying missions with overly conservative forecasts,” Nehring said. “We aim to provide the most timely and accurate data possible, arming planners, aircrews, and leadership with the best intel to make risk-informed decisions.”
In a region strategically vital like the Indo-Pacific, weather awareness is mission-critical. In this region, tropical cyclones pose a major threat. Although the Atlantic hurricane season gets significant attention, storms in the western Pacific are more frequent—and the challenges are compounded by fewer divert options compared to Continental United States (or CONUS)-based missions. “Our team tracks all active tropical systems across the globe and ensures everyone, from aircrews to senior leaders, is informed of potential impacts to missions and bed-down locations,” Nehring said.
While Nehring spent much of his career supporting non-AMC missions, including those under the Air Combat Command, Air Force Special Operations Command, and even Army support roles, transitioning into mobility operations has provided a new perspective. “It’s certainly been eye-opening to see how deeply tied the mobility mission is to everything else,” he said.
From humanitarian relief to global deterrence, rapid mobility missions rely on precision, timing, and informed decision-making—and weather plays a central role in all of it. At 618 AOC, Nehring and his team do more than track forecasts; they provide critical insight that helps protect crews, guides mission planning, and keeps airpower moving across the globe.